The NFL is down to its final four.
Conference Championship Sunday starts when Tampa Bay visits Green Bay. It’s familiar territory for the future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. It’s Aaron Rodgers‘ fifth NFC Championship game. However, it is his first at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady is making his 14th conference championship appearance, but this will be his first in the NFC.
Later, the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills. Chiefs bettors have been refreshing their Twitter feed for any news on Patrick Mahomes and his status regarding concussion protocol. Josh Allen leads the Bills, who have not been to the Super Bowl since 1993.
PA online sportsbooks offer bettors many ways to wager on the action in addition to point spread and total points, such as:
- Player props
- Team props
- Game props
- Halves
- Quarters
- Winning margin
- First scoring play
- Full list on app
Conference Championship betting splits
Jan. 22 betting splits for Buccaneers vs. Packers at BetMGM:
- 54% of the money is on the Packers (-4)
- 78% of the money is on the over (51.5)
Jan. 22 spread betting splits for Bills vs. Chiefs at BetMGM:
- 63% of the money is on the Chiefs (-3)
- 57% of the money is on the under (53.5)
Jan. 24 betting splits for Buccaneers vs. Packers at DraftKings:
- 74% of the money is on the Packers (-3.5)
- 75% of the money is on the over (52.5)
- 61% of the money is the Packers (-200) moneyline
Jan. 24 betting splits for Bills vs. Chiefs at DraftKings:
- 67% of the money is on the Chiefs (-3)
- 57% of the money is on the over (54.5)
- 52% of the money is the Bills (+148) moneyline
Jan. 22 betting splits for Buccaneers vs. Packers at FanDuel:
- 82% of the money is on the Packers (-3)
- 75% of the money is on the over (52)
- 68% of the money is the Packers (-190) moneyline
Jan. 22 betting splits for Bills vs. Chiefs at FanDuel:
- 52% of the money is on the Chiefs (-3)
- 53% of the money is on the over (54.5)
- 58% of the money is the Bills (+150) moneyline
NFL Championship Round betting guide
Darren Darby, sports trader at BetMGM, said:
“We’re seeing early action on both the Chiefs and Packers. Customers are banking on Mahomes being available and we expect that the floodgates could open when/if he’s officially announced as the starter. We’re seeing support for the Buccaneers [and] some gamblers may have PTSD betting against Tom Brady, but the Packers remain a solid favorite.”
A full, detailed preview of the divisional round is available at The Lines.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers — 3:05 p.m. EST (Sunday)
At most PA sportsbooks, the Packers opened as 4.5-point favorites. The line has gone down to 3.5. The total points line is 51.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill, offered his thoughts on the total points (51). At William Hill as of Thursday, 71% of the total dollars wagered is on the under. He said,
“I think it’s just going to be cold there. Unless there’s wind, people will bet this over. Both Brady and Rodgers play great in the cold. They also do such a great job with the field there in Green Bay. Obviously both totals are in the 50s and the public would still love to bet both these games over, so we’ll likely need the unders unless there’s real bad weather at either place.”
Added Bogdanovich:
“We took a couple big bets on the Packers, so we’re pretty high on them right now. But it’s still so early, you never know what’s going to happen in this game. Tampa’s drawn a lot of love all year long, and people will like taking 3.5 as opposed to 3. I still don’t think it’ll be a big decision one way or the other.”
Betting stats and info for Buccaneers vs. Packers from DraftKings:
- The Buccaneers are 9-8-1 ATS; the Packers are 11-6 ATS
- Ten of the Buccaneers’ 18 games have gone over. Ten of the Packers 17 games have gone over.
- The Packers’ win probability is 61%.
- The Packers have won 14 of their 15 home games.
- Davonte Adams has scored the first touchdown in four of the Packers’ last five games at Lambeau.
- Aaron Jones has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last six games against NFC South opponents.
Notable wagers for Buccaneers vs. Packers:
- At BetMGM, a bettor placed a $550,000 wager on the Bucs +3.5; the bet would win $500,000.
- A Nevada bettor at William Hill placed a $500,000 wager on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-110) for a potential payout of $954,545.
- A William Hill bettor wagered $200,000 on Green Bay -3 (-125). The bet would net $160,000.
- A FanDuel customer in PA bet $320K on Packers -3 @-120 to potentially win $266,666.
- A Washington, D.C., bettor laid $40,000 on the Packers -3 (-125) for a total potential payout of $72,000, which is the largest 2021 Conference Championship wager taken thus far at William Hill.
- An Indiana bettor placed $20,000 on Buccaneers +150 for a total potential payout of $50,000 at William Hill.
- At BetRivers, a $17,500 wager on the Buccaneers +150 ML that would pay out $43,750 with a Tampa Bay win.
- At William Hill, a Nevada bettor put down $11,000 on Buccaneers at Packers under 51.5 (-110) for a total potential payout of $21,000, which is the largest 2021 Conference Championship wager taken thus far at William Hill.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs – 6:40 p.m. EST (Sunday)
Sports betting apps opened with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites. On Thursday, the Chiefs were 3-point favorites, with the total points at 54.
Bogdanovich commented on the total points for the AFC Championship matchup. At William Hill, 67% of the total number of tickets are on the over. However, as of Thursday, the handle is split 50-50. Bogdanovich said:
“All the action in this one will come the last three days and all will be based on Mahomes’ health. This shot up immediately to 54, 55 before coming back down to 53.5. There’s weather involved here too, so between weather and health, we’ll figure out the best number. I think it’ll go back up to 55 if Mahomes is in regardless. It just figures to be a high game. Buffalo’s not running, they’re just throwing every down too. The people will bet this game over unless the weather is just so, so bad.”
On Friday, he said:
“Right now, straight bets on the point spread is pretty even, We’re a little high on Bills moneyline, but that’s to be expected. I think this one will be a two-way action game as well. I do think [Patrick] Mahomes will play and that this game will go back up when they announce it. It’ll get to 3.5, 4 tops. But I still think there will be Bills money because the Chiefs haven’t covered a game in so long.”
Betting stats and info for Bills vs. Chiefs from DraftKings:
- The Chiefs’ win probability is 59%.
- The Bills are 12-6 ATS; the Chiefs are 7-9-1.
- Twelve of the Bills’ 18 games have gone over. Eight of the Chiefs’ 17 games gave gone over.
- Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in each of his last five games.
- The Bills have won the first half in 10 of their last 11 games.
- Gabriel Davis has scored a touchdown in four of the Bills’ last five Sunday games.
Notable wagers for Bills vs. Chiefs:
- $330,000 on Kansas City -3 (-110). Placed on Sunday morning with William Hill Sports Book in Nevada. The bet would net $300,000 if the Chiefs cover.
- At William Hill, two separate $10,000 bets placed on Buffalo moneyline +135 for total potential payouts of $23,500 apiece.
- A Nevada bettor at William Hill put $11,000 on Chiefs -3 (EVEN) for a total potential payout of $22,000.
Championship Weekend specials
There are lots of other betting markets for the Divisional Round, including the following at FanDuel:
- Highest-scoring team
- Lowest-scoring team
- QB matchups
- Receiving matchups
- Rushing matchups
- Correct score
Super Bowl betting at BetMGM
Super Bowl LV odds as of Jan. 21 at BetMGM:
- Packers: +195
- Packers: +200
- Bills: +350
- Buccaneers: +450
Super Bowl MVP odds:
- Aaron Rodgers: +280
- Patrick Mahomes: +300
- Josh Allen: +500
- Tom Brady: +600
- D. Adams: +600
- Tyreek Hill: +2000
- Travis Kelce: +2000
AFC title and NFC title futures
Highest handle % for AFC Championship winner:
- Chiefs: 73%
- Bills: 5%
- Titans: 5%
Highest handle % for NFC Championship winner:
- Packers: 30%
- Saints: 13%
- Buccaneers: 12%
A number of notable Conference Championship futures payouts are at stake for William Hill bettors. The two largest are both on the Kansas City Chiefs.
- A Mississippi bettor laid $40,000 on the Chiefs -120 back in December for a total potential payout of $73,333.35.
- A Nevada bettor put $33,000 on the Chiefs -110 in January for a total potential payout of $63,000.
Other possible future payouts at William Hill:
- Another Nevada bettor had a big wager on the Bills when they were at the highest odds at any point since the futures were first released. A $3,000 bet was placed on the Bills at 17/1 for a total potential payout of $54,000.
- A $10,000 bet was taken on the Buccaneers +450 for a total potential payout of $55,000.
- A $5,000 wager on the Packers also at +450 for a total potential payout of $27,500.
- Other notable future wagers at long-shot odds include $840 on the Packers at 11/1 ($10,080 total potential payout).
- $500 on Bills at 16/1 ($8,500 total potential payout).
- $250 on Buccaneers at 30/1 ($7,750 total potential payout).
Super Bowl betting and liabilities at BetMGM
Super Bowl winner handle %:
- Chiefs: 34%
- Buccaneers: 11%
- Packers: 8%
- Seahawks: 6%
- Bills: 5%
Super Bowl line movement:
- Chiefs open +650, current +200
- Packers open +3500, current +195
- Bills open +2500, current +350
- Bucs open +1600, current +450
Biggest Super Bowl liabilities at BetMGM:
- Buccaneers +450
- Chiefs +200
- All other teams are a win for BetMGM
NFC and AFC Championship promos at PA online sportsbooks
DraftKings:
- NFL Parlay Boost: Get a 25% profit boost on a two-leg parlay for the NFL Conference Championship Games.
FanDuel:
- $1,000 risk-free bet for new users: Register, make a first deposit, then make a wager on the FanDuel Sportsbook app up to $1,000. If the bet loses, FanDuel will refund the loss in the form of a free bet up to $1,000.
- Same game parlay: Place a three+-leg parlay on any NFL Conference Championship game, and if only one leg loses, get a refund in site credit (max $25).
NFC and AFC Championship bet boosts at PA online sportsbooks
FanDuel:
(Max bet $50)
- Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers to combine for 600+ passing yards boosted from (-115) to +100
- Packers (-2.5) and Chiefs (-2.5) boosted from (+185) to +210
- Over 50.5 in Packers/Bucs. Packers (-1.5) and Chiefs (-1.5) boosted from (+350) to +400
DraftKings:
- Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs to each score a TD boosted from (+240) to +280
- Packers and Chiefs each to win by 7+ points boosted from (+600) to +700
- Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady to throw for over 4.5 TDs boosted from (+125) to +150
- Travis Kelce to record 100+ receiving yards and score a touchdown boosted from (+200) to +225
- Packers, Chiefs both to win (yes) +168
- Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers to record 5+ combined TD passes (yes) +125
- Davante Adams & Stefon Diggs each to score a TD (yes) +202
Updated NFC and AFC Championship odds at PA sportsbooks
Lead image credit: AP Photo/Jason Behnken
